The market crash

[Κracus]

Oh it hasn't happened yet? Just wait a little.

[xer0s]

Is this another one of your extraordinary predictions?

[Κracus]

Yup. It's gonna be like 2008 all over again.

[xer0s]

Wow, you’re so perceptive and wise...

[Κracus]

If you have investments you probably won't be so smug and will likely wish you'd asked me how I know this instead of being an asshole.

[Eraser]

Weak. With predictions like this you can just bookmark this thread until whenever your "predictions" actually happens you can just dig it up. The trick is to predict something that isn't unlikely to happen within your lifetime.

[xer0s]

If you have investments you probably won't be so smug and will likely wish you'd asked me how I know this instead of being an asshole.

lol, you’re dying for someone to say “Kracus, what inside information do you have???”

[xer0s]

I predict we find evidence of microbial life on Mars. You heard it here first!!!

[xer0s]

I have another prediction. And I know I’ll be ridiculed for this one, but you’ll all thank me when it happens. I predict the sun will rise tomorrow.

I’ll take my smartest forum member award now, thank you...

[Captain]

Experts have been talking about an impending crash and recession for years, even before the pandemic. What Kracass does, in his pathetic desire for acceptance from people that laugh at him, is latch on to things that actual experts have been saying in mainstream information outlets and then pretends like he's the source.

He's the guy waiting for the end of times so he can point at the guy holding a "THE END IS NEAR" sign for 50 years and say "See? I was right."

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

Never go full Kracus.

[Captain]

Kracus: even a little is too much.

[Transient]

I have a prediction! Before too long Kracus will start adding "jellus?" to the end of his posts unironically.

[seremtan]

what would flesh out this, uh, 'prediction' is some idea of the proximate cause of this so-called crash, i.e. rising default rates in the housing market etc.

but no...

[vesp]

So.. are we back to the beginning of the test again :rolleyes:

[Eraser]

what would flesh out this, uh, 'prediction' is some idea of the proximate cause of this so-called crash, i.e. rising default rates in the housing market etc.

but no...

how about a time indication?

[Κracus]

Nah this crash incoming before the end of summer. To be clear, it should have already happened. There are massive banks and hedge funds heavily shorting a matket that at this point will not go down in price. They're so sure about the price tanking they're doubling down on the short causing a problem that they can only solve bankrupting the company's being shorted. Long story short, that's not going to happen. I thought the grouo in question, Citadel would likely tank it'll cause a stir but life will move on. However, it turns out it's a lot more than just citadel. This fuck up is so massive it's hard to comprehend, banks have been systematically avoiding regulations intended to avoid this by falsifying records and accepting the fines instead. They've been shorting stocks in a gamed manner, even stocks they themselves own. Here's a super dumbed down version of what they do. Short the stock, this causes price to go down on its own, then sell thrir stock causing further drops in price, rebuy their own shorts and continue the cycle. Because reporting isn't accurate and ownership of the actual stovk is with the DTC you get duplicate stocks driving the price lower. Once the company goes bankrupt the stocks are worthless and they don't have to repay those shorts. This had already happened many times but the plan yo make this happen with AMC snd GME isn't going according to plan because retail investors are onto this plan and subsequently buying the stocks. The only way this ends is with a massive bailout or a massive crash which is sort of the same thing. These companies are currently being tested in terms of liquidity to make sure they can cover shorts but they really can't, they refuse to accept that and instead will keep doubling down until they cannotpass this test. Unless of course everyone sells which I don't think will happen. I'm not 100.% shit will go down Tuesday but it might, if not then it'll be very soon.

This is like the big short movie where Burry is confused why the housing market isn't crashing despite meeting the requirements for a crash. We're in that moment now, the market is truly fucked and big money is trying desperately to hide it.

[xer0s]

You’re so smart...

[Transient]

SELL SELL SELL!!!!

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

Here's a super dumb version of what they do... Short the stock, this causes price to go down on its own, then sell thrir stock causing further drops in price, rebuy their own shorts and continue the cycle.

Let me stop you right here chief. That's not how it works. :olo:

When you short a stock you are selling it. You can't sell you're short, you have to buy shares to cover what you sold short. This generally will make the stock price rise. Covering certainly doesn't make it go lower...

You have no idea what you're talking about as usual.

[Κracus]

Yeah that’s the super simple version but it’s nice to know how clueless you really are. The problem goes beyond the short because they’re shorting stocks they don’t even own. This is why it’s driving the price down. To understand that you need to know what the DTC is, their sub organizations and how they implemented rules to prevent share owners from actually being able to withdraw them. That means companies can short shares they don’t own. So if a company has say 7 million shares these banks can short 150% of those shares which makes no sense until you watch them bankrupt the company and then get to not have to payout. What you’re saying is how it should work but that’s not what’s happening and it’s because the dtc is effectively a private organization self regulating the market. It starts to make sense why they’d cover for the hedge funds.

There was a major crash in the 80s that happened when computer trading became a thing due to the transactions occurring faster than they resolved resulting in more shares being traded than actually existed.

Look into naked shorting if you want to know more. I’ve done my homework on this one and what I’m saying here is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Κracus]

FYI we’re talking several huge banks and financial institutions naked shorting millions upon millions of stock they don’t own. The only reason it’s not mainstream news is that they’re keeping a lid on it. Shit has already hit the fan and they’re desperately trying keep it from hitting the floor.

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

It's 2021 and Kracus has just discovered naked shorting. :olo:

[Don Carlos]

If you are shorting a stock, you can "borrow" shares from someone and you sell them on the hunch that they are going to go down in price and you can buy the stock back at a lower price, pocketing the difference. If the price rises, you are liable to cover the cost of buying the stock back and returning it to the lender. If the share tanks and the company goes bankrupt then nothing needs to be paid back, as Kracus has said. The issue with doing this, is that it can go very wrong if there is a squeeze on the stock you are trying to short.

It's all interesting stuff. I happen to agree with Kracus; we are in a bubble due to demand for everything and there will be a levelling out in due course. But I don't think it's going to be a crash like in 2007. I think we are 14 months away from seeing the dip and it'll be a gradual one.

[Κracus]

The problem I think that’s going to accelerate the downward spiral is the ridiculous over leveraged position hedgies are in. They’re covering costs on a monthly basis for shorts that on companies that need to declare bankruptcy for this to work in their favour and those companies are flush with cash and the share prices are rising, not dropping. It’s like paying extra for a problem that’s going to be way worse.

In fact they’re being tested for liquidity every month and I don’t think they can keep a lid on this much longer. I think that’s the reason for the crypto dip that started a few weeks ago. They’re selling assets to cover the costs of staying in a short position trying to shake retail investors into selling and dropping the price. I don’t think it’s going to work..