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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-04-2020 01:15 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


This new anecdotal "evidence" presented by Professor Scourge changes everything! Suddenly it's obvious to me that he's right and I'm not. Thank you for clearing this up once and for all, professor! My life will never be the same again!




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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
Joined: 11 Aug 2000
Posts: 48270
PostPosted: 05-04-2020 02:58 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


scared? wrote:
CDC numbers of excess deaths suggest many unreported covid deaths lol?...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm


Oh rly, u think?

Bellend




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Pestilence
Pestilence
Joined: 25 Mar 2002
Posts: 15772
PostPosted: 05-04-2020 05:58 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
This new anecdotal "evidence" presented by Professor Scourge changes everything! Suddenly it's obvious to me that he's right and I'm not. Thank you for clearing this up once and for all, professor! My life will never be the same again!


To be fair, your 'evidence' is from 14 years ago and has no mention of downshifting. My post wasn't 'evidence', just some things that should be fairly understandable if you think about it. The rest is what I myself have done and observed. Kinda hard to supply evidence for that. Calm down sir.




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34237
PostPosted: 05-05-2020 11:36 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:
i thought this was the coronavirus thread, not-the-pointless-flexing-over-how-fast-you-can-ride-your-hog thread :dts:


also, uk has passed italy for death count

at last we're number 1 at something :dts:




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 11846
PostPosted: 05-05-2020 12:43 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Reported cases

23 Apr 2,639,824

25 Apr 2,910,767

27 Apr 3,051,105

29 Apr 3,139,471

1 May 3,389,933

3 May 3,555,338

5 May 3,711,460

Source #1
Source #2



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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 11846
PostPosted: 05-07-2020 08:07 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Reported cases

1 May 3,389,933

3 May 3,555,338

5 May 3,711,460

7 May 3,917,564

Source #1
Source #2



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I'm the dude!
I'm the dude!
Joined: 04 Feb 2002
Posts: 12383
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 07:32 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


So, anyone living in a place that's starting to reopen (either responsibly or prematurely)? What's that like? We're still locked down tighter than Geoff is from his wife's vag.



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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 08:51 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Here in the Netherlands the lockdown has never been very tight. We all work from home where possible and keep 6ft distance. Restaurants and bars and sportsclubs and swimming pools and hairdressers and all those kinds of things are closed, but most shops are just open. We can also go outside for recreational purposes as long as we keep our distance from each other and don't collect too many people in one place.
Nobody is required to wear a facemask either, although public transport opens next week and you need to wear a mask if you use public transport. Primary schools also open next week, for 50% so classes aren't as full.

Our quarantine hasn't really been a quarantine as much as it is in many other places and yet we're following much the same curve as most other countries. I'm not going to draw conclusions from that or make judgements but I'm just happy I could go out and about the past few weeks for some excersise, buying a book or play outside with my kids.




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Finno-Persian Legend
Finno-Persian Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16050
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 09:20 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


obsidian is being dramatic, we live in the same city and it's pretty much what Eraser just described. Barely anyone wears masks and there are lots of people out in groups every day either jogging/cycling or walking their dogs and spitting and puffing all over each other. Tons of stores are open for online orders and curbside pickup and more will be opening in the next couple weeks.

I work from home pretty often on a regular basis so I'm happy about not having to commute the last 2+ months.




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The Afflicted
The Afflicted
Joined: 03 May 2010
Posts: 605
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 09:30 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Germany is starting to loosen the tights.
We have a federal system so it's up to each of the 16 states in the end.

The gouvernement proposed rules last monday for all of the states as guidelines.
Some states want to implement them asap, as of they already did, some want to wait till may, 12th.

Bavaria, where I live, is probably the slowest one to open up again. Bavaria has a long history of being the most conservative and late to the party, kind of funny in this context. But, I have to say I am very happy to be living here now during these times.
I am absolutely pro shutting down even if it hits the branche I'm working with/for very hard.
Which would be tourism/exhibitions/broadcasting/fares. We have a broad foot but it hit us pretty hard.

Stil, people should be safe. It's about them, not about us.

Biggest scandals? Football Games, the league, can play again from next week or something.




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 01:28 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Kevin James doing a Corona Black Mirror episode in 2 minutes




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Pestilence
Pestilence
Joined: 25 Mar 2002
Posts: 15772
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 02:14 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


We haven't been on strict lockdown here either. I see occasional facemasks. They shut down some of the businesses, but people can pretty much go where they want. We've had 6 deaths and around 400 infections. Only 4 in the hospital currently with a population of around 120,000. Most cases are self isolating with mild symptoms.




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34237
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 02:41 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


lockdown still in the UK but you're allowed out for groceries, exercise, and fucking someone else's wife :up:




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 11846
PostPosted: 05-08-2020 03:24 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Here down-under in Australia, pubs, clubs, restaurants and the like will be able to open next weekend with somewhat relaxed rules but it appears it will not be financially viable with 10-person limit.

Here each state has a different timetable to recovery, so here's some information that will change if there is a detectable increase in cases.

Code:
From Saturday May 16 there will be further restrictions relaxed.
•    You can see a maximum of 10 people in public or up to 5 people at your home
•    You can travel up to 150 kilometres from your home for recreation
•    Cafes, restaurants, pubs, clubs can open for up to 10 patrons at a time but bars and gaming stay closed
•   Wedding numbers increase to maximum of 10 people
•   The number of people allowed at funerals increases to 20 indoors and 30 outdoors.
•   Public pools/lagoons can reopen with maximum of 10 people at a time
•   Libraries, playground equipment and outdoor gyms with maximum of 10 people at a time will reopen



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Unquantifiable Abstract
Unquantifiable Abstract
Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 51621
PostPosted: 05-09-2020 04:48 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
Kevin James doing a Corona Black Mirror episode in 2 minutes


Ha! Nice




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 11846
PostPosted: 05-10-2020 11:12 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Some how I missed the 9th of May :smirk:

Reported cases

1 May 3,389,933

3 May 3,555,338

5 May 3,711,460

7 May 3,917,564

11 May 4,181,221

Source #1
Source #2

A side note I went to the hardware store for home project bits & pieces. At the cash (ha ha) registers they now prefer credit/card payments and have installed clear plastic (Perspex) screens to protect the checkout staff! Thinking now, these staff members would interact with maybe hundreds for possible CV carriers daily so it's probably the right thing to do.

At you supermarkets they have done the same thing and now expect you pack your own shopping. No problem for us young folk but some of the 'little old dears' take forever :smirk: Tough times I suppose...



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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 01:58 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Image

edit:
Whiskey, really, don't.




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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
Joined: 11 Aug 2000
Posts: 48270
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 03:24 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Lol




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 5270
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 04:29 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


We're slowly starting to open up but basically it's reopening with restrictions like having limited amounts of people in stores etc... there's also dedicated cleaning stations and staff to wipe stuff down like shopping carts. We went 16 days with no cases and pretty much everyone that was sick was cured. We had one new case about 5 days ago, not sure on how.




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 04:55 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Last weekend we had loads of people all close together going out shopping or recreational places. We had absurdly good weather on Saturday, but it was a bit harrowing to see all those people just not giving a fuck and doing as they please. Our gov't has given out a roadmap about opening up things gradually the coming months. It seems like a lot of people are interpreting this as it's all good to go out again, which obviously, it's not. It kind of angers me, because even my own family-in-law is white knighting these people going out or even going out shopping themselves (and I don't mean grocery shopping, I mean just going to the city center and dicking around).

With news about infectionrates climbing again in Germany and this sudden new outbreak in South Korea I fear that we might end up heading in that direction as well and having to close primary schools again (which opened up today).




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Finno-Persian Legend
Finno-Persian Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16050
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 07:36 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
Kevin James doing a Corona Black Mirror episode in 2 minutes


First time I've ever enjoyed anything by Kevin James




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34237
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 09:10 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


from wednesday people in the uk will be allowed to exercise all day

wowee :dts:




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 11846
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 12:29 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
.....
edit:
Whiskey, really, don't.


That's years old :)

Quote:
Russia overtakes Italy and Britain after record rise in coronavirus cases

Source



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Finno-Persian Legend
Finno-Persian Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16050
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 02:05 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I guess that's one problem they can't throw out of a window to solve




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Blockheaded Blubberboy
Blockheaded Blubberboy
Joined: 16 Apr 2000
Posts: 20576
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 07:56 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Without the possibility of a vaccine in the near future, the only thing lock downs/quarantines can do with a virus this wide spread is slow the death rate. Do we realize the deaths now (with-in reason) and save the economy or experience them over an extended period of time and kill the economy, as well as others due to circumstances directly related to the shut down?




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 08:57 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


What are you trying to say, YourGrandpa? I thought the whole "flattening the curve" thing and the reasons behind it are common knowledge by now?




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Finno-Persian Legend
Finno-Persian Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16050
PostPosted: 05-11-2020 10:25 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
save the economy
kill the economy


Image




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Who's that man, Mommy?
Who's that man, Mommy?
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Posts: 5184
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 02:56 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
Do we realize the deaths now [...] and save the economy or experience them over an extended period of time and kill the economy


While this correctly outlines two of the options (full opening vs. shutdown), I think the assumed consequences for these two are wrong.

Let's look at full reopening:

I think that this would not save the economy for the following reasons. If we go back to a doubling rate of 3-4 days, we would be at a 100+ million infected in the US alone over the next two months. Let's assume that 5% percent of these cases would need intensive care (If I remember correctly the rate is higher, up to 14% but let's stay in the "happy" case). This means: 5 million people in need of intensive care, ventilation, etc. Let's say the US would somehow ramp up its intensive care capacity to 200k. So there would be 4.8 million people that could not be treated and would most likely die. Let's be optimistic and assume that half of them make it. That would be 2.5 million.

If that many people die, the economy would also be affected.

And the 2.5 million dying of corona are not the only cause of death that would increase due to this course: There would be heavy casualties among the health workers. If the health system collapses, even more people die to a lot of other causes that could normally be treated.

Then there's also a psychological toll: Constant paranoia of being infected by other people; Depression and grieving due to relatives, friends and coworkers dying. And this psychological toll will not be gone once the population reaches herd immunity.

Conclusion: Going back to no restrictions would have a grave impact on the economy that might be as bad as the lockdown.

YourGrandpa wrote:
[...]as well as others due to circumstances directly related to the shut down?


While I partly agree (the lockdown surely causes some deaths that would not have happened otherwise: Suicide due to isolation, missed doctors appointments), I think there are several problems in actually evaluating the impact here.

What I often see is the following comparison: Extra deaths due to lockdown vs. deaths currently caused by corona . The main problem here: It compares the wrong numbers. The actual comparison should be: Extra deaths due to lockdown vs Extra deaths due to unrestricted corona outbreak. The latter would surely be much higher (see above).

Also there's other problems: How do you measure the extra deaths? Subtract the total number of deaths this year to least years? This does not account for deaths actually caused by corona but not registered as such. Also: Due to the weather, the flu season was relatively slow this winter. This means a lot of the 85+ people that would usually die of the flu did not in the winter but will most likely die around this time to whatever other cause. (Low flu season delayed some amount of deaths among elderly people). Etc...

As you see: The whole `extra deaths` topic is super hard to quantify. Compare it to the confirmed cases vs actual cases discussion. It's still very tricky statistics wise even though is is much less complex and the measuring is way more precise.




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34237
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 03:02 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


people have been talking about "the economy" like it's an abstract thing that doesn't impinge on the lives of actual people, sometimes fatally

reminds me of those Leavers sneering at "your GDP, not my GDP". OK Brexoomer :rolleyes:




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Who's that man, Mommy?
Who's that man, Mommy?
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Posts: 5184
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 03:09 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
"flattening the curve"


I think the best course of action is to have some kind of lockdown until the number of infections per capita is below a certain threshold. Then subsequently reopen, while analyzing the impact of the different lockdown measures.

For example: Most of Germany did pretty well with simply restricting the size of gatherings to (effectivey) 2 to 5 persons while closing restaurants and shops for a while. The parts where strict lockdowns where imposed (for example Bavaria) did not do better than other parts. So: There seems to be no need to stay at home all day if you have good social distancing. I went out on small hikes, bike cruises and played ping pong with my SO in the park without any problems.

We need to find out what measures are the most effective and stick to these.

Also: If a certain area/city/county experiences a big second wave, reimpose lockdown measures ASAP until the growth is halted.




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Blockheaded Blubberboy
Blockheaded Blubberboy
Joined: 16 Apr 2000
Posts: 20576
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 09:13 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Eraser wrote:
What are you trying to say, YourGrandpa? I thought the whole "flattening the curve" thing and the reasons behind it are common knowledge by now?


The curve has been flattened. It's time to cautiously reopen our economies and get back to work. We cannot quarantine for the next 12 to 18 months (maybe never) waiting for a vaccine. We also have to understand that we will lose lives as a direct result of shut downs. Suicides from depression and people avoiding/denied routine medical check ups will potentially kill tens of thousands.




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Finno-Persian Legend
Finno-Persian Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16050
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 11:19 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
Suicides from depression and people avoiding/denied routine medical check ups will potentially kill tens of thousands.


That's a result of your impoverished third-world shithole not having healthcare. Average Americans die from the measliest viruses because they can't afford medical visits or basic check-ups, not to mention the resurgence of diseases all thanks to the biblethumper anti-vaxxer population you have over there.

BUT BUT BUT THE ECONOMY




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34237
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 12:40 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


*laughs in NHS*




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 43059
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 09:33 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
Eraser wrote:
What are you trying to say, YourGrandpa? I thought the whole "flattening the curve" thing and the reasons behind it are common knowledge by now?


The curve has been flattened. It's time to cautiously reopen our economies and get back to work. We cannot quarantine for the next 12 to 18 months (maybe never) waiting for a vaccine. We also have to understand that we will lose lives as a direct result of shut downs. Suicides from depression and people avoiding/denied routine medical check ups will potentially kill tens of thousands.

I don't disagree with that sentiment, but I also think we should he very, very careful. Germany has been relaxing their restrictions and the infection rate has increased to above 1 again.

Also, I'm not sure about the situation in the US, but here in the Netherlands, there has been an emphasis on IC capacity. We managed to significantly increase capacity and not get our hospitals swamped. The number of IC beds in use is declining now, so people are quick to claim victory. The problem,however, is that our hospitals are still working at like 130% of their normal abilities and have still shut down certain parts of their healthcare services to increase IC capacity. We're not back to normal by quite a stretch. A second outbreak would be a disaster and not something we can afford.




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Welfare Recipient
Welfare Recipient
Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 20574
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 10:07 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
The curve has been flattened. It's time to cautiously reopen our economies and get back to work. We cannot quarantine for the next 12 to 18 months (maybe never) waiting for a vaccine. We also have to understand that we will lose lives as a direct result of shut downs. Suicides from depression and people avoiding/denied routine medical check ups will potentially kill tens of thousands.


This moron sounds like ur average QAnon dipshit... Understandable, but pathetic...




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