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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 12925
PostPosted: 05-12-2020 10:10 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


On another note...................

Reported cases

5 May 3,711,460

7 May 3,917,564

11 May 4,181,221

13 May 4,342,849

Source #1
Source #2



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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
Joined: 11 Aug 2000
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PostPosted: 05-13-2020 05:22 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34898
PostPosted: 05-13-2020 09:57 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote





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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34898
PostPosted: 05-13-2020 10:26 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
The curve has been flattened.


no it hasn't. not even close

a flattened curve:

Image

a not even slightly flattened curve:

Image

(both charts show confirmed cases)




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Legend
Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16498
PostPosted: 05-13-2020 11:55 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


WOO LOOKIT THAT LINE SHOOTIN' UP WE'RE #1 U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A! HOOO-AHHH




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 12925
PostPosted: 05-13-2020 12:17 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Incredible number....

Image



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Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Joined: 24 Nov 2000
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PostPosted: 05-13-2020 12:39 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


lol 3rd world countries




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34898
PostPosted: 05-13-2020 02:52 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


with the orange tardplanet in charge, the US is practically a 4th world country at this point




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
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PostPosted: 05-13-2020 09:03 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


But Obamagate!




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Who's that man, Mommy?
Who's that man, Mommy?
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Posts: 5316
PostPosted: 05-14-2020 03:50 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Whiskey 7 wrote:
Incredible number...


Yes. But raw numbers don't tell you anything without context. A better comparison would be the EU:

US 1.4m cases / 85k deaths.
EU 1.5m cases / 160k deaths.

So are the US doing better?

Again we're comparing raw numbers. Looking at cases per capita (330m for the US, 450m for the EU):

US: 0.4% infected / 0.02% deaths.
EU: 0.3% infected / 0.035% deaths.

But then again, the number of tests performed varies a lot from country to country and from what I know, the US is heavily undertesting and the case mortality is a lot above the world average in Italy, Spain and GB.

Some explorable data here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/




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meh...
meh...
Joined: 23 Mar 2000
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PostPosted: 05-14-2020 11:13 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


:up:

UK reported figures are high, but they're also adding on extra figures to include "coronavirus related" deaths (eg heart attack caused by coronavirus complications is not recorded separately as just cause of death being a heart attack), and added non-hospital deaths that were tested post mortem.
Reporting methods vary from country to country. Not everyone is counting and reporting in the same way. *cough* China...

Death attributed to coronavirus is also usually only being reported if the person had tested positive. The figures are OK for "big picture", but trying to say X country has a better percentage than Y country at this stage is still wobbly data analysis at best. (Pext's figures show how close the relative percentage points are)

There are also some strange factors not always considered - some countries had lower than usual expected death rate during last year's flu season (meaning more of our population were at extreme risk to covid19), climate, population spread over geography and age, that make direct country-country comparison... well, really hard.

To add on some further reading, fairly clear article on the issue is below (uk centric, couple weeks old, and almost trying to explain away the mis-handling by UK govt, but still interesting),
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-deaths-how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
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PostPosted: 05-14-2020 11:52 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Reported cases still climbing...

5 May 3,711,460

7 May 3,917,564

11 May 4,181,221

13 May 4,342,849

15 May 4,539,401

Source #1
Source #2



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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
Joined: 11 Aug 2000
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 01:01 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


FFS




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 5943
PostPosted: 05-15-2020 02:22 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Feels like we're gonna reach billions before it slows down.




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 02:30 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Κracus wrote:
Feels like we're gonna reach billions before it slows down.

Uh, at this point we're still more or less a billion away from a billion people




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 03:00 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I guess if exponential growth is a new concept to you.




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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 03:41 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


4.4m now, more like 20-30m. Only 970m to go!

You should think before you type, Rob.




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 04:21 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Doombrain wrote:
They pulled the trigger too early, that’s for sure to be sure.




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Etile
Etile
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 05:32 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Κracus wrote:
I guess if exponential growth is a new concept to you.


exponential growth curves don't go on being exponential growth curves forever, especially not when measures are taken to make sure they don't go on forever

for example, think of geoff shitposting on discord. the shitposting starts gently, then increases exponentially until DB has had enough and he gets banned -> the curve is flattened (instantly, in this case)

see?




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 05:37 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I do which is why I think we'll hit the billion mark or get close to it. Especially with countries like India with massive populations.




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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 05:54 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Κracus wrote:
we're gonna reach billions


Κracus wrote:
we'll hit the billion mark





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Digital Nausea
Digital Nausea
Joined: 10 Feb 2001
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 10:30 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I like the China one better...




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
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PostPosted: 05-15-2020 11:47 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Doombrain wrote:
4.4m now, more like 20-30m. Only 970m to go!

You should think before you type, Rob.


Make mathematical sense :up:

Mathematicianof Q3W



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Who's that man, Mommy?
Who's that man, Mommy?
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Posts: 5316
PostPosted: 05-15-2020 02:03 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Κracus wrote:
I guess if exponential growth is a new concept to you.


If the growth was exponential you'd be right. But: Growth has been mostly linear on a global level for quite some time:

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona ... -weltweit/




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
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PostPosted: 05-16-2020 08:20 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I definitely cannot read anything on that website but I'll take your word for it. That said those numbers aren't accurate. The number is always higher than can be reported and getting higher every day. I wouldn't be surprised if a billion people already had it in China.




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Pestilence
Pestilence
Joined: 25 Mar 2002
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PostPosted: 05-16-2020 09:18 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Κracus wrote:
I definitely cannot read anything on that website but I'll take your word for it. That said those numbers aren't accurate. The number is always higher than can be reported and getting higher every day. I wouldn't be surprised if a billion people already had it in China.


Using that, so would the survival numbers as unless there were significant symptoms most wouldn't get tested at all. I could have already had it and not known because I haven't been tested and therefore wouldn't be counted in any form. That being said, pretty much everyone is going to be exposed to it at some point. The whole idea of the lockdowns was not to prevent exposure, but to prevent everyone from being exposed at the same time. Chances are it will become as common as the flu.




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
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PostPosted: 05-17-2020 08:00 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Yeah that's how I see it going too unless we see somekind of vaccine.




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Kempston Joy
Kempston Joy
Joined: 11 Aug 2000
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PostPosted: 05-17-2020 12:23 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


In the uk were being fed a line about a possible vaccine by September from Astra Zeneca. Trails are happening now as well as production in case trails prove positive. The government just pumped another 84m into it.

I hope they do, but given all the info it just doesn’t seem possible this early.




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Blockheaded Blubberboy
Blockheaded Blubberboy
Joined: 16 Apr 2000
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PostPosted: 05-17-2020 12:35 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


You might be being lead down the wrong trail.




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 12925
PostPosted: 05-17-2020 01:07 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


:arrow: Scourge :up:

Reported cases near 5 million

11 May 4,181,221

13 May 4,342,849

15 May 4,539,401

17 May 4,788,005

Source #1
Source #2



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Cool #9
Cool #9
Joined: 01 Dec 2000
Posts: 44132
PostPosted: 05-17-2020 10:43 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


YourGrandpa wrote:
You might be being lead down the wrong trial.

I fixed Brain's quote to match Doombrian's spelling




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Lead Pipe Mafia
Lead Pipe Mafia
Joined: 15 Oct 2007
Posts: 5943
PostPosted: 05-18-2020 03:19 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Braillient.




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Unquantifiable Abstract
Unquantifiable Abstract
Joined: 31 Dec 1969
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PostPosted: 05-19-2020 11:02 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


US deaths are a sniff away from 100k...that is frightening




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Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34898
PostPosted: 05-19-2020 12:15 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


we'll be lucky to stay under 40k here :(




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Just another Earthling
Just another Earthling
Joined: 20 Jul 2001
Posts: 12925
PostPosted: 05-19-2020 12:22 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Close now to 5 million reported cases

11 May 4,181,221

13 May 4,342,849

15 May 4,539,401

17 May 4,788,005

19 May 4,964,373

Source #1
Source #2



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