Brexiting is closer than I thought it would be

[losCHUNK]

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours

[phantasmagoria]

I really hope we don't leave.

[vesp]

I don't know anyone who is going to vote leave...

[phantasmagoria]

I do, my facebook is awash with people spewing immigration hatred. THEY TOOK OUR JOBS BLAME THE EU.

I argued with someone at work on Friday about them wanting to leave the EU because of Turkey gaining visa free travel. After explaining the Schengen agreement to them they told me I was making it up, otherwise they'd have heard of it. This is the kind of moron that votes to leave.

[seremtan]

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours

it's not that close



leave is flat; remain is trending upward as all the undecideds make up their minds

btw this is from the FT data you just cited

[Captain]

Are chavs immigrants too?

[seremtan]

I do, my facebook is awash with people spewing immigration hatred.

yeah, this is the most disappointing thing about the Brexit campaign. they have strong arguments but instead resort to their own version of the Remain camp's Project Fear bullshit about WW3, immigrants, and house prices

they could instead have focused on the anti-democratic nature of the EU and that staying in means (for example) watching as the NHS gets privatised thanks to TTIP, with no way of stopping it. at least if we were out we could eject the government that pulls this kind of shit

for me it's all about who actually gets to decide how this country is run. out of the EU, democracy might have a chance; staying means you can kiss that goodbye and welcome our new neoliberal overlords

and just look at the Remain camp: a weird alliance of luvvies, CEOs, and Donald Rumsfeld. it's like the Guardian got fucked by the Wall Street Journal and they made a baby. an ugly, stupid baby with Downs

[losCHUNK]

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours

it's not that close

***

leave is flat; remain is trending upward as all the undecideds make up their minds

btw this is from the FT data you just cited

I just said it was closer than I thought, after the last election I don't put much faith in polls and if you look at the last months worth of polls it is pretty erratic. The scots referendum ended up with a few Torys requiring fresh trousers in the end.

[losCHUNK]

Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.

[Captain]

Maybe another Mossad-style terrorist attack will help the far-right get the results they need.

[phantasmagoria]

it's not that close

I think the voting to stay folk are the ones more likely to be too apathetic to vote, which despite the pre-poll numbers means the Leave campaign might win.

Far more young people under 30 would rather stay whereas far more 50+ want to leave, at the polling stations the 50+ demographic are far more likely to turn up.

[Don Carlos]

I really hope we don't leave.

[seremtan]

Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.

i see what you're getting at, but there are other factors:

* there are 24 polls showing Remain at >50%; only 3 showing Leave at >50%
* 11 of the Remain polls at >50% are from this year; Leave has no results >50% for this year

UK has been in the EU for long enough for a good head of steam to build up for Brexit. these polls show that this just hasn't happened

then again, as phags pointed out, it might be that demographic voting patterns that swing it over the line for Brexit. depends on how much people believe Gideon's bollocks about an 18% drop in house prices if Brexit

[seremtan]

I really hope we don't leave.

a year ago i thought this, and there are still things i like about being in the EU (the free movement of people being one of them), but i've seen enough of the dark side of the EU in the last 12 months to make me wonder if that's enough to sell it. i mean, if we'd never joined, like Norway, would we be hammering on the door right now? i doubt it

[seremtan]

Muslamic Rayguns

great name for a band

[MKJ]

Morons get their way in the EU anyway, might as well leave now too (even tho noones allowed to leave the EU, ever)

[losCHUNK]

Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.

i see what you're getting at, but there are other factors:

* there are 24 polls showing Remain at >50%; only 3 showing Leave at >50%
* 11 of the Remain polls at >50% are from this year; Leave has no results >50% for this year

That's fair enough, I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either). Anyway, I still find it a little erratic the closer we get to the deadline . Polls are polls though.

I'm one of those that really isn't bothered either way though, just all along I assumed we would stay and this was an election ploy by the Torys to hijack UKIPpers. There is a lot more support than I imagined and it is in a position to succeed imo, although unlikley.

And the subject material has probaly made me not give a shit. Immigration / house prices n all that, but I'm prolly more inclined to keep the status quo if only because of a rampant Tory government free from Europe. I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

[losCHUNK]

Oh yea and

[youtube]t9_EhmfxHys[/youtube]

[seremtan]

I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either).

uh, dude... that data is in the FT page you yourself linked. the reason the 50% threshold is important is because at >50% the influence of the undecideds on the outcome is zero.

I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

TTIP is a trade deal between the US and EU. if we're not in the EU, we're not in TTIP

[losCHUNK]

I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either).

uh, dude... that data is in the FT page you yourself linked. the reason the 50% threshold is important is because at >50% the influence of the undecideds on the outcome is zero.

Aye, why is that relevant ?. You've either omitted or forced the undecideds to make a choice though, why I said the data 'you've selected'. I mean you've omitted like 75% ? of the polls. Cmon man you know what I'm getting at.

I cba to look into it but I'm willing to bet those 50/50 polls were done by the same companys n all, or possibly company.

I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

TTIP is a trade deal between the US and EU. if we're not in the EU, we're not in TTIP

If we're not in the EU, we'll negotiate for TTIP or its equivalent. The Torys are wanking all over it.

Democracy won't prevail if we're outside the EU either, that's some fantasyland shit. Our political landscape won't change.

[plained]

misdirectioning functioning as intended!

[losCHUNK]

Infact talking about TTIP I'm pretty sure we have veto power. So yea, there you go...

[seremtan]

Aye, why is that relevant ?. You've either omitted or forced the undecideds to make a choice though, why I said the data 'you've selected'. I mean you've omitted like 75% ? of the polls. Cmon man you know what I'm getting at.

ffs dude look at the chart i posted earlier. count the blue spikes that cross the 50% line. now count the orange spikes that do the same. see how there are way more >50% blues than >50% oranges? that should tell you something

I cba to look into it but I'm willing to bet those 50/50 polls were done by the same companys n all, or possibly company.

well i guess that's that then

I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

If we're not in the EU, we'll negotiate for TTIP or its equivalent. The Torys are wanking all over it.

did you not hear Obama's "back of the queue" comment?

Democracy won't prevail if we're outside the EU either, that's some fantasyland shit. Our political landscape won't change.

so there's nothing to be done - then why the fuck are you arguing about it?

[losCHUNK]

A: Now you're just dragging the arguement further sideways. The data you had mentioned only included +50 polls which by your own numbers was small (37 out of 228)... I've already mentioned the trendline caused by those spikes you mentioned and you seemed to think it was fair game...

B: Can you not see what I'm getting at ?. I'm not saying they're biased.

C: Yes ?, you think that's seriously going to have any affect ?, if we vote to leave the EU then over the next 3 years we're going to be scrambling to put together any trade deals that we can. That will be a necessity. What you're saying is by leaving the EU (in 3 years) we could slow that process down ?

D: I'm not, most of our arguement revolves around interpreting statistical data, but in our out the EU will have no bearing on our political landscape. I made a statement, it's upto you wether you want to argue against that.

[PhoeniX]

I can't find the original source with all the pretty charts but according to some YouGov polls the older, less educated and poorer you are the more you want to leave the EU - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03 ... ts-to-rem/. The Sun, Mail and Express readers are those most wanting to leave and the Guardian readers mostly want to stay.

That's settled my mind - stay it is .